Consumer Expectations: Micro Foundations and Macro Impact

Description

Richard Curtin has directed the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment surveys for more than four decades. His analyses of recent trends in consumer expectations are regularly covered in the worldwide press. In this book, Curtin presents a new theory of expectations. Whereas conventional theories presume that consumers play a passive role in the macro economy, simply reacting to current trends in incomes, prices, and interest rates, Curtin proposes a new empirically consistent theory. He argues that expectations are formed by an automatic process that utilizes conscious and nonconscious processes, passion and reason, information from public and private sources, and social networks. Consumers ultimately reach a decision that serves both the micro decision needs of individuals and reflects the common influence of the macro environment. Drawing on empirical observations, Curtin not only demonstrates the importance of consumer sentiment, but also how it can foreshadow the cyclical turning points in the economy.

Richard Curtin is the Director of the Surveys of Consumers at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, where he has worked for over four decades. His analysis of recent trends in consumer expectations are issued twice monthly and are regularly covered in the worldwide press. Data from the surveys are included in the US Index of Leading Economic Indicators. During his career he has consulted with a number of countries, helping them to establish comparable consumer surveys, as well as a wide range of US and international businesses and financial institutions. He received his B.A. from Michigan State University and his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan.

'There is no one on earth who knows more about consumer expectations and the macroeconomy than Richard Curtin. All the rest of us have much to learn from this impressive book.' Alan S. Binder, Gordon S. Rentschler Memorial Professor of Economics and Public Affairs, Princeton University, New Jersey 'Richard Curtin has produced a tour de force about expectations and the macro economy, including the formation, construction, and measurement of expectations. Curtin was a colleague and friend of George Katona, and he learned very well at the Master's 'feet'.' Roger Frantz, San Diego State University 'Unravelling the complexities of consumers' expectations is a perennial challenge for economists. Richard Curtin's Consumer Expectations provides fresh perspectives solidly grounded on real evidence from Michigan's influential consumer sentiment surveys. It will be an invaluable guide for anyone interested in how uncertainty and complexity play out in modern macroeconomies.' Michelle Baddeley, Director and Research Professor, Institute for Choice, University of South Australia