Oracles: How Prediction Markets Turn Employees into Visionaries

Description

From the selection of the new lead in a Broadway musical, to forecasting Congressional elections, to the delivery delay of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, prediction markets have solved a fascinating range of problems by aggregating the so-called wisdom of crowds. For many companies prediction markets have remained an interesting curiosity. But operating under-the-radar, a number of innovative companies-General Electric and Google, Motorola and Microsoft, HP and Eli Lilly, plus the Central Intelligence Agency-have tapped employee insights and used markets to make better decisions, and to allow employees to become visionaries. In Oracles, Don Thompson explains how these organizations use prediction markets to change how business gets done.

Donald N. Thompson is an economist and professor of marketing, emeritus, at the Schulich School of Business at York University in Toronto. He has taught at Harvard Business School and the London School of Economics. Thompson is author of nine books, including The $12 Million Stuffed Shark: The Curious Economics of Contemporary Art, which has been published in thirteen languages.

"Donald Thompson shows that group predictions can help unveil hidden knowledge. They can replace market studies and even diminish the need for endless meetings and brainstorming sessions. Thompson provides numerous examples and urges business managers to test out the collective wisdom of their company 'crowd.'" -- Business Digest "Oracles offers a fresh look at improving decision-making skills." -- CHOICE Magazine "... there are enough examples of corporate successes for any executive to find use in this book, building on the notions of the wisdom of crowds and the value of open-book management." -- The Globe & Mail ADVANCE PRAISE for Oracles "Oracles is a fantastic blend of the visionary and the practical. Don analyzes both the transformational potential of prediction markets and the organizational complexities that make realizing this potential a challenge. A comprehensive history for anyone considering using prediction markets to change their organization." -- Leslie Fine, Chief Scientist, Crowdcast "Thompson delivers a thorough but accessible survey of prediction markets, covering everything from their theoretical foundation to current best practices--a must-read." -- Jeff Severts, Chief Marketing and Services Officer, Best Buy Europe "Oracles provides a comprehensive look at prediction markets and explores the extraordinary results and challenges of the early adapters and their providers. If you are considering a prediction market for your company, you need to read this book." -- Linda Rebrovick, CEO, Consensus Point