Leading Economic Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records

Description

Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalize existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.

"The different chapters of this book provide a cross section of recent researches and developments in the field of business cycles and forecasting. The book is likely to be of interest for forecasters in government and business as well as for researchers in economics, business management, econometrics and statistics." R.K. Mathur, Journal of Educational Planning and Administration "...an excellent review of the current state of research into leading indicators. While the evidence presented concerns the US economy (with the exception of a couple of papers on Australia), the message that surveys and patterns in data can help in forecasting, has a much wider application and needs to be taken seriously by economic modellers." Kenneth Holden, International Journal of Forecasting