Decisions under Uncertainty: Probabilistic Analysis for Engineering Decisions

Description

Risk assessment is a critical part of every engineer's role, whether it is simply to determine the likelihood of failure of a new product within the warranty period, or the potential cost, human and financial, of the catastrophic failure of a bridge. This book helps the reader to understand the tradeoffs between time, costs and risk in an engineering setting, and includes a wide range of case studies and worked examples. It introduces the basic theory and covers all of the most widely used mathematical techniques likely to be encountered in real engineering projects. Equally valuable for graduate students, practising engineers, designers and project managers.

Ian Jordaan is a full Professor in the Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science at the Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada. Prior to joining the university in 1986 he was Vice President, Research and Development at Det Norske Veritas (Canada) Ltd., and before this he was a full Professor in the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of Calgary, Canada. He is the recipient of a number of awards including the Horst Leipholz Medal of the Canadian Society for Civil Engineering and held the NSERC-Mobil Industrial Research Chair in Ocean Engineering at Newfoundland from 1986 to 1996.

'This book takes a very interesting approach to the treatment of uncertainty and its role in decision making. The author, who has extensive background in both academia and industry, uses an intuitive argument whenever possible to derive common laws of probability ... This approach has a distinct advantage for such use in contrast to the more traditional mathematical foundation, from which most engineering students are discouraged by a perceived lack of applicability. Based on the author's experience, it seems that the book would fit best into an undergraduate civil engineering curriculum, since applications are focused on decisions for the built environment.' Journal of Engineering Mechanics 'The comprehensiveness of the book is striking. In an impressive manner the author manages to address the beginner as well as providing useful knowledge on advanced topics such as game theory and entropy. ... In summary, the author has succeeded in providing an up-to-date and comprehensive text on decision techniques that ought to be extensively used in engineering education and practice. In particular, the current trend toward performance-based engineering and advanced simulation models should be clearly be complemented with probabilistic analysis to account for uncertainties and decision analysis to achieve optimized designs.' Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering '... Ian Jordaan ... has made an important contribution to humanity by writing this comprehensive and thoroughly readable textbook on the subject ... After reading the book one is much better prepared to recognize and effectively address the decision-making process in ambiguous situations where there is considerable uncertainty and the risks are high.' David A. Breslin